The collapse of walleye pollock catch in the Korean fishing region during the late 1980s remains unresolved despite enormous efforts to recover its stock. To investigate the future fate of walleye pollock in the western East/Japan Sea (EJS) in the late 21st century, we implemented a dynamical downscaling approach by developing high-resolution regional ocean climate models (1/20°) with the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) global climate models. We analyzed the changes in the spawning days and larval distribution of walleye pollock in the western EJS. Under the SSP5–8.5 global warming scenario, the suitable spawning period ratio of walleye pollock was drastically reduced by 76%. The severe reduction in spawning days in the western EJS was mainly attributed to ocean warming caused by a decrease in atmospheric surface cooling. Moreover, our particle tracking experiment showed substantial loss of eggsand larvae south of 38° N. Our study projected a drastic collapse of walleye pollock in the western EJS and proposed a variety of collapse patterns based on local circulation under future warming conditions. These findings can help the local fishing industry adapt and assist neighboring governments in planning future fisheries management strategies.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), referring to anomalously high sea surface temperatures, have drawn significant attention from marine scientists due to their broad impacts on the surface marine ecosystem, fisheries, weather patterns, and various human activities. In this study, we examined the impact of the distribution of Changjiang diluted water (CDW), a significant factor causing oceanic property changes in the East China Sea (ECS) during the summer, on MHWs. The surface salinity distribution in the ECS indicates that from June to August, the eastern extension of the CDW influences areas as far as Jeju Island and the Korea Strait. In September, however, the CDW tends to reside in the Changjiang estuary. Through the Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of the cumulative intensity of MHWs during the summer, we extracted the loading vector of the first mode and its principal component time series to conduct a correlation analysis with the distribution of the CDW. The results revealed a strong negative spatial correlation between areas of the CDW and regions with high cumulative intensity of MHWs, indicating that the reinforcement of stratification due to low-salinity water can increase the intensity and duration of MHWs. This study suggests that the CDW may still influence the spatial distribution of MHWs in the region, highlighting the importance of oceanic environmental factors in the occurrence of MHWs in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogramma) caught in the Korean fishing area dramatically decreased in the late 1980s. To investigate the potential impact of the late 1980s climate regime shift on the collapse of the pollock catch, we developed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with data assimilation and a particle tracking model. Data-assimilated reanalysis showed that sea surface temperature increased by approximately 2°C in the spawning area of pollock in the late 1980s. The suitable spawning area in the East Korean Bay decreased due to warming in the late 1980s. Spawned eggs of walleye pollock were tracked using a particle tracking model for 30 days in January and February during 1983–1992. The number of individuals transported to the nursery within the Korean fishing area from the spawning area was reduced by 74% in the late 1980s. The intensified East Korean Warm Current (EKWC) could be responsible for the decreased number of individuals transported to the southern area in the late 1980s. Warming in the Korean fishing area could also cause a decrease in pollock. These oceanic changes might be linked to climate regime shifts in the late 1980s. The warming regime with positive Arctic Oscillation and weakened monsoon intensified the northward flow of the EKWC and accelerated the warming of the spawning and fishing areas in the late 1980s.

Nitrate (NO3–) plays an important role in ecosystems and aquaculture in the Yellow Sea (YS). Sparse observational data suggest that ocean currents and nitrification are crucial to NO3– flux in the YS; however, a quantitative assessment of these fluxes has not yet been performed. This study investigates seasonal and spatial variations in NO3– flux via currents and biological processes in the YS from 2006 to 2019 using a physical-biogeochemical coupled model. The model results show that the current-driven fluxes exceeded biological processes in the eastern and central regions of the YS, unlike in the western and northern regions. Advection of NO3– in the YS is mainly driven by cyclonic circulation in summer and fall, and anticyclonic circulation in spring and winter. The Subei Coastal Current along the coast of China plays a primary role in net advective influx of NO3– to the YS year round. The NO3– influx by the Yellow Sea Warm Current along the lower layer of the southcentral YS is offset by outflux through wind-driven surface currents in winter. The southward movements of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water in summer and the Korean Coastal Current in winter are major NO3– outfluxes to the East China Sea. In terms of biological processes, NO3– is mainly consumed by phytoplankton during the spring bloom and supplied through organic matter decomposition and nitrification. Net supply of NO3– by biological processes was the greatest in the southcentral YS where the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water is present.

Global climate models (GCMs) have limited capacity in simulating spatially non-uniform sea-level rise owing to their coarse resolutions and absence of tides in the marginal seas. Here, regional ocean climate models (RCMs) that consider tides were used to address these limitations in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas through dynamical downscaling. Four GCMs that drive the RCMs were selected based on a performance evaluation along the RCM boundaries, and the latter were validated by comparing historical results with observations. High-resolution (1/20°) RCMs were used to project non-uniform changes in the sea-level under intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high-end emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The predicted local sea-level rise was higher in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), where the currents and eddy motions were active. The tidal amplitude changes in response to sea-level rise were significant in the shallow areas of the Yellow Sea (YS). Dynamically downscaled simulations enabled the determination of practical sea-level rise (PSLR), including changes in tidal amplitude and natural variability. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum PSLR was ∼85 cm in the YS and East China Sea (ECS), and ∼78 cm in the EJS. The contribution of natural sea-level variability changes in the EJS was greater than that in the YS and ECS, whereas changes in the tidal contribution were higher in the YS and ECS. Accordingly, high-resolution RCMs provided spatially different PSLR estimates, indicating the importance of improving model resolution for local sea-level projections in marginal seas.

The contributions of bottom cold water and planetary β-effect to the formation of the East Korean Warm Current (EKWC), the western boundary current in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), were evaluated using an idealized three-dimensional numerical model. The model results suggest that the bottom cold water and, to a lesser extent, the planetary β-effect both contribute to the formation of the EKWC. The cold water functions as the bottom of the upper layer, to control the EKWC via conservation of potential vorticity. It is known that cold waters, such as the North Korean Cold Water and Korea Strait Bottom Cold Water often observed during summer along the southwestern coast of the EJS, originate from the winter convection in the northern area. Observational studies consistently show that the EKWC strengthens in summer when the cold water extends further south along the western boundary.